Ethiopia, a landlocked country in East Africa, this year completes a mega project on the Blue Nile, which began in 2011, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam or the GERD. Ethiopia sees the dam as a means for the economic upliftment of its 112 million inhabitants. The GERD, which cost roughly 4.8 Billion Dollars, promises to more than double Ethiopia’s electricity output, harnessing 6000 MW and electrify the manufacturing industry and 65% of otherwise dark Ethiopian houses.
But indeed, a zero-sum game.
Tensions are on the rise between Ethiopia and Egypt, with Sudan caught in between. Ethiopia intends to commence filling the reservoirs this month, employing the rain. But, the downstream countries Egypt and Sudan, resist, insisting on a tripartite agreement.
90% of the desert state of Egypt relies on the Nile for its freshwater requirements, so much so that 97% of the Egyptian population resides on the Nile Banks. Egyptians fear an existential threat, reduced inflow of water in the coming years as the reservoirs begin to fill. No doubt, the Nile is indispensable.
While Sudan, where the blue meets the White Nile, shares similar fears. However, the Blue Nile being seasonal, it would benefit from regulated flow, thus preventing floods. Besides, it would reap cheaper electricity from Ethiopia.
Almost 10 years of failed negotiations, with Egypt and Sudan asking for guaranteed water flowing, and Ethiopia refusing on grounds of National Sovereignty, no consensus has been arrived at. In spite of interventions from the US, the UN, and the African Union, there is no agreement.
Is Ethiopia even waiting for one?
This month, while, Sudan experienced reduced water levels in the Nile, Ethiopia denied claims of it filling the 1.8km huge reservoir.
Satellite images of the GERD this month reveal Ethiopia’s earlier spoken intentions of filling the reservoirs this monsoon unilaterally, with or without a deal.
With both, Egypt and Ethiopia, publicly suggesting military courses, will the “Grand Renaissance” stain the Blue and White Nile, to Red and Bloody?